We use a dynamic forecasting model to evaluate a wide array of opportunities for sustained economic growth in Myanmar. Our simulation results suggest that the government of Myanmar can advance potential growth drivers, by maintaining a stable macroeconomic environment that is conducive to...

Forecasting the inflation path is an important task for central banks in an inflation targeting regime. Therefore, central banks must continuously evaluate the forecasting accuracy of the models used to generate inflation forecasts. This paper evaluates the performance of most of the models that...

In this paper, we document the forecasting performance of estimated basic dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models and compare this to extended versions which consider alternative expectation formation assumptions and financial frictions. We also show how standard model features,...

We investigate how the relative contribution of external factors to stock price movements varies with the degree of financial development. We find that financial development makes stock markets more susceptible to external influences (both financial and macroeconomic). Interestingly, this effect...

This paper analyses the long-memory properties of US and European stock indices, as well as their linkages, using fractional integration and fractional cointegration techniques. These methods are more general and have higher power than the standard ones usually employed in the literature. The...

This paper analyses the long-memory properties of US and European stock indices, as well as their linkages, using fractional integration and fractional cointegration techniques. These methods are more general and have higher power than the standard ones usually employed in the literature. The...

The aim of this paper is to investigate the long run relationship between the development of banks and stock markets and economic growth. We make use of a Johansen-based panel cointegration methodology allowing for cross-country dependence to test the number of cointegrating vectors among these...

Initially, voting rights were limited to wealthy elites providing political support for stock markets. The franchise expansion induces the median voter to provide political support for banking development as this new electorate has lower financial holdings and benefits less from the uncertainty...