Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to associate a probabilistic confidence with the stock market interval forecasts obtained with the interval least squares (ILS) algorithm. The term probabilistic confidence in this paper means the probability of a point observation that will fall in the...

The 2005 Article IV Consultation for the United Arab Emirates reports that the prices in real estate and stock markets, have soared aided by stronger economic fundamentals and investor optimism. An outward-oriented development strategy and prudent financial policies have resulted in impressive...

The U.S. business cycle typically leads the European cycle by a few quarters and this can be used to forecast euro area GDP. We investigate whether financial variables carry additional information. We use vector autoregressions (VARs) which include the U.S. and the euro area GDPs as a minimal...

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to associate a probabilistic confidence with the stock market interval forecasts obtained with the interval least squares (ILS) algorithm. The term probabilistic confidence in this paper means the probability of a point observation that will fall in the...

This paper examines the usefulness of asset prices in predicting recessions in the G-7 countries. It finds that asset price drops are significantly associated with the beginning of a recession in these countries. In particular, the marginal effect of an equity/house price drop on the likelihood...

Purpose – The purpose of this study is to investigate the impacts of interval measured data, rather than traditional point data, on economic variability studies. Design/methodology/approach – The study uses interval measured data to forecast the variability of future stock market changes....

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to associate a probabilistic confidence with the stock market interval forecasts obtained with the interval least squares (ILS) algorithm. The term probabilistic confidence in this paper means the probability of a point observation that will fall in the...

A decent budgetary portfolio is nothing more, and nothing less, than an accumulation of advantages that develop in quality and produce abundance money for the financial specialist to spend or reinvest. Markowitz (1959) is one of the pioneers of present day portfolio hypothesis. Generally, the...

This paper dissects with great acuteness, the issues of convergence in financial performance dynamics in the African continent through the lenses of stock market capitalization, value traded, turnover and number of listed companies. The empirical evidence is premised on 11 homogenous panels...