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Was the U.S. Great Depression a Credit Boom Gone Wrong?
Postel-Vinay, Natacha - 2020
The US Great Depression was preceded by almost a decade of credit growth. This review paper suggests that the 1920s credit boom went through two phases: one, up to around 1927, when credit grew in concert with money; another one, from around 1928 to 1929, when credit grew faster than money....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012848726
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Oil price uncertainty and the business cycle : accounting for the influences of global supply and demand within a VAR GARCH-in-mean framework
Thiem, Christopher - 2017
volatility as well as the U.S. economy. We find that - even after accounting for these factors - oil price uncertainty still has … confirms these results. Finally, significant spillover effects in the GARCH model suggest that oil price volatility is a gauge …Dieser Beitrag untersucht den Einfluss von Ölpreisunsicherheit auf die Wirtschaftsaktivität der USA mit Hilfe eines VAR …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011608019
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Regularized estimation of structural instability in factor models : the US macroeconomy and the great moderation
Callot, Laurent; Kristensen, Johannes Tang - 2015
This paper shows that the parsimoniously time-varying methodology of Callot and Kristensen (2015) can be applied to factor models. We apply this method to study macroeconomic instability in the US from 1959:1 to 2006:4 with a particular focus on the Great Moderation. Models with parsimoniously...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010532582
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Estimation of Historical Inflation Expectations
Binder, Carola - 2016
Expected inflation is a central variable in economic theory. Economic historians have estimated historical inflation expectations for a variety of purposes, including studies of the Fisher effect, the debt deflation hypothesis, central bank credibility, and expectations formation. I survey the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012989845
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Business History > Piketty
Wright, Robert E. - 2015
Piketty's Capital in the 21st Century has attracted more attention than it perhaps deserves given that its main empirical claim, that wealth inequality is bound to occur in "capitalist" economies because the rate of return r is greater than the rate of economic growth g (r g), is not rigorously...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014137599
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Treatment of the Banking Holiday of March 1933 in Growth Regressions
Mladjan, Mrdjan - 2019
Government intervention during the banking holiday of March 1933 resolved the uncertainty usually created by bank suspensions. Including banking holiday suspensions in growth regressions therefore biases downwards the estimates of the real effects of bank suspensions. In this paper, I propose a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012865724
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Buried in the vaults of central banks : monetary gold hoarding and the slide into the Great Depression
Karau, Sören - 2020 - This draft: October 2020
I study whether monetary gold hoarding was the main cause of the Great Depression in a structural VAR analysis. The notion that monetary forces played an important role in bringing about the depression is well established in the narrative literature, but has more recently met some skepticism by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012405992
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Money, Sticky Wages, and the Great Depression
Bordo, Michael D.; Erceg, Christopher J.; Evans, Charles L. - 2000
This paper examines the ability of a simple stylized general equilibrium model that incorporates nominal wage rigidity to explain the magnitude and persistence of the Great Depression in the United States. The impulses to our analysis are money supply shocks. The Taylor contracts model is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014154226
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Measuring Economic Downside Risk and Severity : Growth at Risk
Yao, Yudong; Wang, Yan - 2005
Using Growth at Risk as a measure of downside growth risk, the authors find that higher perceived levels of downside growth risk seem to be negatively associated with long-term growth. Output collapses and crises are a fact of life. Severe economic downturns occur periodically and have grave...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014124889
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Is there really a global business cycle? : a dynamic factor model with stochastic factor selection
Berger, Tino; Pozzi, Lorenzo - 2016
We investigate the presence of international business cycles in macroeconomic aggregates (output, consumption, investment) using a panel of 60 countries over the period 1961 - 2014. The paper presents a Bayesian stochastic factor selection approach for dynamic factor models with predetermined...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011556201