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We use two approaches to examine the macroeconomic consequences of disruptions in global food commodity markets. First, we embed a novel quarterly composite global production index for the four basic staples (corn, wheat, rice and soybeans) in a standard vector autoregression (VAR) model, and we...
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percent). Since the impact of convergence on the supply side is much more muted, convergence puts upward pressure on world … food prices, partially offsetting a baseline trend toward falling world food prices to 2050 …
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and maize prices between world and domestic markets using GARCH models with dynamic conditional correlation specifications …
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