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Switzerland as a case study. Our results suggest that Swiss asset price responses to ECB policy surprises are significant. They … depend on the type and nature of the surprise and change over time. Decomposing bond yields into expected short-term interest … rates and the term premium reveals that both signalling and portfolio rebalancing effects explain the responses of bond …
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This paper examines return predictability when the investor is uncertain about the right state variables. A novel feature of the model averaging approach used in this paper is to account for finite-sample bias of the coefficients in the predictive regressions. Drawing on an extensive...
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