We propose a new method of estimating the natural real rate and long-horizon inflation expectations, using nonlinear regressions of survey-based measures of short-term nominal interest rates and inflation expectations on U.S. Treasury yields. We find that the natural real rate was relatively...

This paper evaluates the properties of nominal interest rates as indicators of inflation expectations. Are they unbiased? How precise are they? To arrive at robust results, a range of different methods are applied on several S and UK data sets. The results show that the interest rate level is a...

Chapter 1 Introduction -- Chapter 2 Synopsis of fiscal policy in South Africa: 1994 – 2020 -- Part 1: Government debt -- Chapter 3 Effects of government debt on output, household consumption and gross fixed capital formation: Role of the credit conditions channel -- Chapter 4 Government debt...