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to the fit. Using data for the United States, the euro area and Germany, we assess the performance of boosting when …
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to assess the risk of deflationary developments occurring in Germany over the next four years. …
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This paper argues that probability forecasts convey information on the uncertainties that surround macroeconomic forecasts in a manner which is straightforward and which is preferable to other alternatives, including the use of confidence intervals. Probability forecasts relating to UK output...
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