This paper employs tests for Granger-Sims causality and a four-variable vector-autoregression (VAR) to examine whether real government spending and real net taxes have any systematic effect on output purchased by the private sector. The paper finds no evidence of causality from government...

Using quarterly data for the period 1985:1-2011:1, this paper uses a stylised, open economy, structural VAR model to identify the types of shocks responsible for macroeconomic fluctuations in the UK economy. The stylised model implies a set of short-run restrictions that allow for the...

Does the Chilean government smooth taxes? This paper argues that the answer is yes, but only if one takes into account royalties from copper. During the past ten years there has been a serious debate in Chile initially regarding the sustainability of the Chilean government's fiscal deficit and...

Using quarterly data for the period 1985:1-2009:1 this paper uses a stylised, open-economy, structural VAR model to identify the types of shocks responsible for macroeconomic fluctuations in the UK economy. The stylised model implies a set of short-run restrictions that allow the identification...

It is generally agreed that the price-output correlation in the United States was positive prior to the Second World War, but became negative during the postwar period (at least by 1972). This paper offers evidence that the price-output correlation changed signs because of a decrease in the...