We explore the efficiency of the forward Reichsmark market in Vienna between 1876 and 1914. We estimate ARIMA models of the spot exchange rate in order to forecast the one-month-ahead spot rate. In turn we compare these forecasts to the contemporaneous forward rate, i.e., the market's forecast...

We explore the efficiency of the forward reichsmark market in Vienna between 1876 and 1914. We estimate ARIMA models of the spot exchange rate in order to forecast the one-month-ahead spot rate. In turn we compare these forecasts to the contemporaneous forward rate, i.e., the market's forecast...

This paper considers what we argue was the first experiment of a exchange rate band. This experiment took place in Austria-Hungary between 1896 and 1914. The rationale of introducing this policy rested on precisely those intuitions that modern target zone literature has recently emphasized: the...