The problem is to evaluate the likelihood that a country will face a currency or balance of payments crisis over a given horizon. When is it rational for market participants to expect a depreciation of the currency? On the basis of considerable empirical studies we know that in both banking and...

Public foreign currency borrowing is a common problem of emerging markets. Scholars named it the original sin of foreign debt. It has a proven negative influence on economic growth and development, undermining financial stability, and increasing the probability of monetary crises. The roots of...