R.G. Goodwin mentioned that "economists will be led, as natural scientists have been led, to seek in nonlinearities an explanation of the maintenance of oscillation" (Goodwin, Econometrica 19(1), 1951); following this reasoning, we studied business cycles as if they were generated by nonlinear...

This paper has the objective to empirically test Harrod's explanations of economic dynamics addressing both growth and business cycles. In particular we test Harrod's speculation that opening the economy to foreign trade could lead to a reduction of cyclical instability. The main variables...

Within bank activities, which is normally defined as the joint exercise of savings collection and credit supply, risk-taking is natural, as in many human activities. Among risks related to credit intermediation, credit risk assumes particular importance. It is most simply defined as the...

After having illustrated in Chap. 13 the Harrod’s model and a chaotic specification of it, in this Chapter we are going to prove that (1) real data could be obtained by a suitable calibration of model’s parameters, (2) the calibrated model confirms theoretical predictions (Orlando and Della...

Although the probability of default (PD) modeling has reached a great maturity in both academia and business, for the Italian case we demonstrate that banks' available PD models would be misleading if today applied directly to Italian banks. We argue that what determines the PD of Italian banks,...