Over the next couple of years, the European Union will face a difficult stage, being confronted with the eventual transition to a monetary union. In the beginning of 1997, it is less clear than ever, if and when the European Monetary Union will eventually be realized, which countries will join...

In this paper we employ a novel identification scheme to show the causal effect of negative shocks to banks on the real economy. The identification is based on exploiting distressed mergers of German savings banks. We show that these mergers represent exogenous shocks to the (initially...