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Testing Theories of Gambler’s Fallacy and Hot-hand Fallacy : Probability Bias vs. Randomized Choice
Li, King King - 2019
experimentally test three competing theories of GF and HHF: probability bias, randomized choice, and bounded rationality. We find … the classical method suggests about 51% (48%). We show that probability bias, randomized choice, and bounded rationality …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012859406
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Are behavioral biases stable across markets and prevalent across individuals? : evidence from individual betting choices
Andrikogiannopoulou, Angie; Papakonstantinou, Filippos - 2014
We use novel data on individual activity in a sports betting market to study the effect of past performance sequences on individual behavior in a real market. The revelation of fundamental values in this market enables us to disentangle whether behavior is caused by sentiment or by superior...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010338735
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Estimating risk preferences of bettors with different bet sizes
Feess, Eberhard; Müller, Helge; Schumacher, Christoph - In: European journal of operational research : EJOR 249 (2016) 3, pp. 1102-1112
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011439308
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An alternative explanation of the favorite-longshot bias
Kukuk, Martin; Winter, Stefan - In: The journal of gambling business and economics 2 (2008) 2, pp. 79-96
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003766405
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"It ain't over till it's over" : Yogi Berra bias on prediction markets
Page, Lionel - In: Applied economics 44 (2012) 1/3, pp. 81-92
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009504504
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Leveraging lotteries for school value-added : testing and estimation
Angrist, Joshua D.; Hull, Peter; Pathak, Parag A.; … - 2015
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011420912
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Do horses like vodka and sponging? : on market manipulation and the favourite-longshot bias
Winter, Stefan; Kukuk, Martin - In: Applied economics 40 (2008) 1/3, pp. 75-87
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003721918
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Leveraging Lotteries for School Value-Added : Testing and Estimation
Angrist, Joshua D.; Hull, Peter; Pathak, Parag A.; … - 2021
students’ demographic characteristics and previous scores. This paper tests for VAM bias using a procedure that asks whether … model describing the joint distribution of school value-added, bias, and lottery compliance. We use this model to assess the … substantive importance of bias in conventional VAM estimates and to construct hybrid value-added estimates that optimally combine …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013224955
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The robust “maximum daily return effect as demand for lottery” and “idiosyncratic volatility puzzle”
Egginton, Jared; Hur, Jungshik - In: Journal of empirical finance 47 (2018), pp. 229-245
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012103500
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Leveraging lotteries for school value-added : testing and estimation
Angrist, Joshua D.; Hull, Peter; Pathak, Parag A.; … - In: The quarterly journal of economics 132 (2017) 2, pp. 871-919
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012029662