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To improve the detection of the economic ”danger zones” from which severe banking crises emanate, this paper introduces classification tree ensembles to the banking crisis forecasting literature. I show that their out-of-sample performance in forecasting binary banking crisis indicators...
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world economy in 2030, almost doubling the current 34% share of the region in 2009. …
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surveys on expectations and implied statistics of predictive models. The BCEF procedure is applied to produce world GDP growth …
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Consensus forecasts for the global economy over the medium and long term predict the world's economic gravity will …
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