The most popular method of calculating asset prices is the capital asset pricing model (CAPM). What is the appropriate amount of years to use in the estimation and which variation of the capital asset pricing beta provides the best results? This research looks at the out of sample forecasting...

The most popular method for calculating asset prices is the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). What is the appropriate amount of years to use in the estimation and which variation of the capital asset pricing beta provides the best results? This research looks at the out-of-sample forecasting...

Status quo bias is a systematic cognitive error which makes it difficult for individuals to make decisions independently of the currently dominant situation. This study pursues the question of whether bond market analysts are affected by status quo bias. We evaluated interest rate forecast...

We show empirically that survey-based measures of expected inflation are significant and strong predictors of future aggregate stock returns in several industrialized countries both in-sample and out-of-sample. By empirically discriminating between competing sources of this return predictability...

This paper examines return predictability when the investor is uncertain about the right state variables. A novel feature of the model averaging approach used in this paper is to account for finite-sample bias of the coefficients in the predictive regressions. Drawing on an extensive...

We use weekly survey data on short-term and medium-term sentiment of German investors in order to study the causal relationship between investors' mood and subsequent stock price changes. In contrast to extant literature for other countries, a tri-variate vector autoregression for short-run...