Similar Search Results

Monitoring multicountry macroeconomic risk

Korobilis, Dimitris; Schröder, Maximilian - 2023

We propose a multicountry quantile factor augmeneted vector autoregression (QFAVAR) to model heterogeneities both across countries and across characteristics of the distributions of macroeconomic time series. The presence of quantile factors allows for summarizing these two heterogeneities in a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014314068

Forecasting German key macroeconomic variables using large dataset methods

Pirschel, Inske; Wolters, Maik H. - 2014

We study the forecasting performance of three alternative large scale approaches using a dataset for Germany that consists of 123 variables in quarterly frequency. These three approaches handle the dimensionality problem evoked by such a large dataset by aggregating information, yet on different...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010357899

DSGE Model-Based Forecasting of Non-Modelled Variables

Schorfheide, Frank; Sill, Keith; Kryshko, Maxym - 2019

This paper develops and illustrates a simple method to generate a DSGE model-based forecast for variables that do not explicitly appear in the model (non-core variables). We use auxiliary regressions that resemble measurement equations in a dynamic factor model to link the non-core variables to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014214672

Forecasting performance of an open economy Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model

Adolfson, Malin; Lindé, Jesper; Villani, Mattias - 2006 - Revised

This paper analyzes the forecasting performance of an open economy DSGE model, estimated with Bayesian methods, for the Euro area during 1994Q1-2002Q4. We compare the DSGE model and a few variants of this model to various reduced form forecasting models such as vector autoregressions (VAR) and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011584035

Forecasting with Approximate Dynamic Factor Models : The Role of Non-Pervasive Shocks

Luciani, Matteo - 2011

In this paper we investigate whether accounting for non-pervasive shocks improves the forecast of a factor model. We compare four models on a large panel of US quarterly data: factor models, factor models estimated on selected variables, Bayesian shrinkage, and factor models together with...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013120664

Time-varying combinations of predictive densities using nonlinear filtering

Billio, Monica; Casarin, Roberto; Ravazzolo, Francesco; … - 2012

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009724346

Combined density nowcasting in an uncertain economic environment

Aastveit, Knut Are; Ravazzolo, Francesco; Dijk, Herman … - 2014

We introduce a Combined Density Nowcasting (CDN) approach to Dynamic Factor Models (DFM) that in a coherent way accounts for time-varying uncertainty of several model and data features in order to provide more accurate and complete density nowcasts. The combination weights are latent random...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010465155

Macroeconomics, nonlinearities, and the business cycle

Reif, Magnus - 2019

Im Zentrum dieser Dissertation steht das Beschreiben und Erklären von Konjunkturdynamiken. Motiviert durch den außerordentlich starken wirtschaftlichen Einbruch in 2008/2009 betont die Arbeit dabei die Wichtigkeit der Nutzung von nichtlinearen Modellansätzen. Die Dissertation kann als Beitrag...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012154125

A non-linear forecast combination procedure for binary outcomes

Lahiri, Kajal; Yang, Liu - 2015

We develop a non-linear forecast combination rule based on copulas that incorporate the dynamic interaction between individual predictors. This approach is optimal in the sense that the resulting combined forecast produces the highest discriminatory power as measured by the receiver operating...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010475341

The effects of structural shocks on macroeconomic fundamentals under aggressive monetary policy : the case of Turkey

Güngör, Mahmut Sami; Güloğlu, Bülent - In: International journal of business and economic sciences … 12 (2019) 2, pp. 7-21

prior distribution of structural parameters and shock processes are determined according to the literature. Then, we … consistent with theoretical framework of the new Keynesian synthesis. Besides, the historical shock decompositions of endogenous … monetary policy increases the effects of monetary policy shock on inflation while its impact on output gap and interest rate …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012239944

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Next
Last