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The estimation of inflation volatility is important to Central Banks as it guides their policy initiatives for … Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) family with a view to providing a parsimonious approximation to the dynamics of Nigeria's inflation volatility … and food CPI, implying that the impacts of inflation shocks on their volatilities die away very slowly. However, the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011476231
In this paper we propose a model for monthly inflation with stochastic trend, seasonal and transitory components with …, the uncertainty associated with these components may increase with the level of inflation as postulated by Friedman. We … experiments. Finally, we use auxiliary residuals to detect conditional heteroscedasticity in monthly inflation series of eight …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012724002
The paper advances the log-generalized gamma distribution as a suitable generator of conditional skewness. Based on the NYSE composite daily returns an asMA-asQGARCH model along with skewness dynamics is estimated. The results indicate a skewness that varies between sizeable negative skewness...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011398115
We provide a new framework for modeling trends and periodic patterns in high-frequency financial data. Seeking adaptivity to ever-changing market conditions, we enlarge the Fourier flexible form into a richer functional class: both our smooth trend and the seasonality are non-parametrically...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011411344
We propose a noncausal autoregressive model with time-varying parameters, and apply it to U.S. postwar inflation. The … model fits the data well, and the results suggest that inflation persistence follows from future expectations. Persistence … curve indicate that current inflation also depends on past inflation although future expectations dominate. The implied …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013084430
The persistence property of inflation is an important issue for not only economists, but, especially for central banks …, given that the degree of inflation persistence determines the extent to which central banks can control inflation. Further …, not only is the level of inflation persistence that is important in economic analyses, but also the question of whether …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013045937
inflation volatility.Also, causality tests results indicate that changes in the exchangerate, output gap volatility, and output … gap will have permanent andtemporary causal effects on inflation volatility. The policymakersshould carefully consider … these results to implement appropriatepolicies to reduce inflation volatility. The finding that the shocks areof temporary …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014312187
Using Gretl, I apply ARMA, Vector ARMA, VAR, state-space model with a Kalman filter, transfer-function and intervention models, unit root tests, cointegration test, volatility models (ARCH, GARCH, ARCH-M, GARCH-M, Taylor-Schwert GARCH, GJR, TARCH, NARCH, APARCH, EGARCH) to analyze quarterly time...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012904559
and Karanasos (2008) to examine the intertemporal relationship between the uncertainties of inflation and output growth in … the US. We find that inflation uncertainty effects output variability positively, while output variability has a negative … effect on inflation uncertainty. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003770689
framework we examine the twelve potential intertemporal relationships between inflation, growth and their respective … uncertainties using US data. We find that high inflation is detrimental to output growth both directly and indirectly via the … nominal uncertainty. Output growth boosts inflation but mainly indirectly through a reduction in real uncertainty. Our …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008758143