The purpose of this paper is to examine with econometric methods the impact of foreign trade on the German business cycle. The outcome is that the fluctuations of German GDP can be explained to a considerable amount by the fluctuations of world demand and changes in the terms of trade.

Introduction to human capital and economic growth -- The concept of human capital : a brief historical review -- Theoretical models of human capital and economic growth -- Human capital and endogenous models of economic growth -- Threshold effects, multiple equilibria, and nonlinearities in...

Multi-step-ahead forecasts of forecast uncertainty in practice are often based on the horizon-specific sample means of recent squared forecast errors, where the number of available past forecast errors decreases one-to-one with the forecast horizon. In this paper, the efficiency gains from the...