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-quality firms. Public liquidity support preserves the overall production capacity. However, by dampening the cleansing effects, it … the expectations of liquidity support that motivate low-quality firms to overinvest pre-crisis. Finally, the size of … on savings discourage firms from self-insurance against crises through internal liquidity accumulation …
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risk forecasts of the Bank of England and the Sveriges Riksbank, however, we do not find conclusive evidence for … informativeness, that is, for a systematic connection between risk assessments and forecast errors. Thus, it seems questionable … whether macroeconomic risk forecasts are meaningful. -- Forecast evaluation ; risk forecasts ; inflation forecasts …
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A factor stochastic volatility model estimates the common component to estimates of the output gap produced by the staff of the Federal Reserve, its time-varying volatility, and time-varying, horizon-specific forecast uncertainty. Output gap estimates are very uncertain, even well after the...
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