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We study 30 vintages of FRB/US, the principal macro model used by the Federal Reserve Board staff for forecasting and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012783775
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011960006
interested in their usefulness for policy analysis and forecasting. This paper reviews some issues and challenges surrounding the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010298566
We propose a Nelson-Siegel type interest rate term structure model where the underlying yield factors follow autoregressive processes with stochastic volatility. The factor volatilities parsimoniously capture risk inherent to the term structure and are associated with the time-varying...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003864095
In this paper we develop a business cycle measure that can be shown to have excellent ex-ante forecasting properties … least one quarter. It can therefore be used for one quarter ahead forecasting real GDP growth. -- business cycle measurement …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003908417
Die vorliegende Arbeit untersucht, wie sich Angebots-, Nachfrage- und geldpolitische Schocks aus den Vereinigten Staaten auf Deutschland übertragen. Dabei wird ein so genanntes factor-augmented vector autoregressive model (FAVAR) auf einen neu zusammengestellten Datensatz mit mehr als 200...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003919815
The Central European countries became members of the European Union (EU) in May 2004. Has their accession into the EU also resulted in a stronger financial integration with the global economy in general and with the "old" EU countries in particular? Based on a cointegration analysis applied to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003951768
model using simulation-based inference. Applying the SVNS model to monthly U.S. zero-coupon yields, we find significant …-of-fit and clearly reduces the forecasting uncertainty particularly in low-volatility periods. The proposed approach is shown to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003952795
A basic assumption of the gravity equation of international trade is that increasing trade costs lower exports. Butintuition and theory imply that a high export volume lowers bilateral trade costs as well, because a fixed cost intensivetrade sector probably bears lower average costs with more...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003941170
This paper develops and estimates a search model of the labor market where jobs are characterized by wages and work-hours flexibility. Flexibility is valued by workers, and is costly to provide for employers. The model generates observed wage distributions directly related to the preference for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003944288