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sentiment in the dynamic factor model for nowcasting consumer confidence. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012437743
Most macroeconomic indicators failed to capture the sharp economic fluctuations during the Corona crisis in a timely manner. Instead, alternative high-frequency data have been used, aiming to monitor the economic situation. However, these data are often only loosely related to the business cycle...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012395297
We develop a small-scale dynamic factor model for the Swiss economy based on an appropriately selected set of indicators. The resulting business cycle factor is in striking accordance with historical Swiss business cycle fluctuations. Our proposed model demonstrates a remarkable performance in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011732586
Common sense tells that historical data are more informative for the estimation of today's nowcasting models when … procedure of GDP nowcasting models, in which observations are weighted based on the similarity with the current economic state … significant nowcasting gains for predicting GDP growth in Belgium as compared to traditional unweighted approaches. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014450791
model averaging framework for macroeconomic nowcasting. Our suggested model can efficiently deal with the nature of the real …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012119825
Measuring and displaying uncertainty around path-forecasts, i.e. forecasts made in period T about the expected trajectory of a random variable in periods T+1 to T+H is a key ingredient for decision making under uncertainty. The probabilistic assessment about the set of possible trajectories that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003962215
The use of large datasets for macroeconomic forecasting has received a great deal of interest recently. Boosting is one possible method of using high-dimensional data for this purpose. It is a stage-wise additive modelling procedure, which, in a linear specification, becomes a variable selection...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009721997
World power and gas markets have a natural relationship with global tradable carbon permits markets, including the U.S. Clean Air Act Amendments and the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, the latter officially launched in January 2005. Electric utilities operate their power plants based in part on the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003394343
Using daily return data from the four major Central and Eastern European stock markets including fourteen highly liquid stocks and ATX (Vienna), PX (Prague), BUX (Budapest), and WIG20 (Warsaw) market indices, we model the value-at-risk using a set of univariate GARCH-type models. Our results...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003755230
Empirical studies have shown that a large number of financial asset returns exhibit fat tails and are often characterized by volatility clustering and asymmetry. Also revealed as a stylized fact is Long memory or long range dependence in market volatility, with significant impact on pricing and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003636008