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Business climate indicators are used to receive early signals for turning points in the general business cycle. Therefore methods for the detection of turning points in time series are required. Estimations of slopes of a smooth component in the data can be calculated with local polynomial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011450892
In this paper we introduce a new nonlinear Markov-STAR model to capture both the markov switching and smooth transition dynamics for real exchange rates. The Markov switching part captures the effect of time variations of the equilibrium exchange rates, while the smooth transition part models...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011429933
This paper examines the degree of persistence in UK inflation by applying long-memory methods to historical data that … detect any shifts in the degree of persistence, and also run rolling-window and recursive regressions to investigate its … evolution over time. On the whole, the evidence suggests that the degree of persistence of UK inflation has been relatively …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011815117
This paper examines the degree of persistence in UK inflation by applying long-memory methods to historical data that … detect any shifts in the degree of persistence, and also run rolling-window and recursive regressions to investigate its … evolution over time. On the whole, the evidence suggests that the degree of persistence of UK inflation has been relatively …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011819378
Although many macroeconomic time series are assumed to follow nonlinear processes, nonlinear models often do not provide better predictions than their linear counterparts. Furthermore, such models easily become very complex and difficult to estimate. The aim of this study is to investigate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010434848
(Panel) Smooth Transition Regressions substantially gained in popularity due to their flexibility in modeling regression coefficients as homogeneous or heterogeneous functions of transition variables. In the estimation process, however, researchers typically face a trade-off in the sense that a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011749886
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010400183
, sticky-price models. Our analytical and quantitative results show that the source of interest rate persistence - policy …, these models fail to generate high real exchange rate persistence in response to monetary shocks, as policy inertia hampers …, increasing policy inertia may decrease real exchange rate persistence. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010402080
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010418033
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011294577