This paper deals with the estimation of the output gap. We use uni- and bivariate unobserved components models in order to decompose the observed German GDP-series into trend, cycle and seasonal components. The results show that using the ifo business assessment variable as an indicator for the...

We study how households adjust their medium-term inflation expectations under the new ECB inflation targeting strategy. Survey respondents make little difference between the previous strategy of targeting inflation rates close to but below 2% and the new strategy with a 2% point target....

The natural rate of interest, often interpreted as the equilibrium real interest rate, serves as a critical benchmark for evaluating the stance of monetary policy. This paper investigates the natural rate of interest in Uzbekistan using three econometric approaches: the HLW-type model1 , a...

Quarterly GDP figures usually are published with a delay of some weeks. A common way to generate GDP series of higher frequency, i.e. to nowcast GDP, is to use available indicators to calculate a single index by means of a common factor derived from a dynamic factor model (DFM). This paper deals...

This paper investigates evidence of a Fisher effect in Nigeria by employing quarterly CPI inflation and Nominal interest rates data. For a more robust result we conducted integration and cointegration tests in order to examine time-series properties of the variables. Using Co-integration and...

Thinly traded securities exist in both emerging and well developed markets. However, plausible estimations of market risk measures for portfolios with infrequently traded securities have not been explored in the literature. We propose a methodology to calculate market risk measures based on the...