pronounced before recessions. The results obtained from a panel probit model confirm that the divergence between the Divisia and … the simple sum aggregate has a significant predictive content for recessions in euro area countries. …

current business cycle phase and of foreign recessions on the likelihood that expansions and recessions come to an end. With … to recessions in a G7 country, we find that the likelihood of them coming to an end is not affected by other G7 countries …’ recessions. We find duration dependence of recessions for all G7 countries, i.e. recessions that have gone on for a while are …

recessions accelerate this process. In doing so we establish a new fact about the demand for skill over the business cycle. Using …

different consequences for the costs of recessions. Using U.S. employer-employee data, we find that employment growth at low … that while during recessions separations fall in both high-paying and low-paying firms, the decline is stronger among low …

The slow recovery following the 2008/2009 recession has led to renewed interest in the question whether deep recessions … to large recessions. The test has more power than conventional unit root tests. We find that positive and negative shocks …