The variance of real interest rate differentials (rids) is decomposed between ex post deviations from relative purchasing power parity and uncovered interest rate parity (UIRP) for a set of emerging markets from 1995M5 to 2004M3. The results point out to nominal interest rate differentials and...

We revisit the debate on the sustainability of the current account dynamics in the US. Using the concept of sustainability as the ability to meet the long run intertemporal budget constraint, we test for unit roots in the US current account for the 1960-2004 period. We argue that there are...

We use panel probit models with unobserved heterogeneity and serially correlated errors in order to analyze the determinants and the dynamics of current-account reversals for a panel of developing and emerging countries. The likelihood evaluation of these models requires high-dimensional...

This paper sets forth a new methodology for obtaining a consistent set of exchange rate realignments needed to accomplish international adjustment in current account imbalances to reach fundamental equilibrium exchange rates (FEERs). The approach is named the symmetric matrix inversion method...

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) estimates the return on investments of foreign subsidiaries of U.S. multinational companies over the period 1982-2006 averaged 9.4 percent annually after taxes; U.S. subsidiaries of foreign multinationals averaged only 3.2 percent. Two factors distort...

This paper investigates how oil price shocks affect the trade balance and terms of trade in a two country DSGE model. We show that the response of the external sector depends critically on the structure of financial market risk-sharing. Under incomplete markets, higher oil prices reduce the...

This paper re-examines the role of country-specific fundamentals in explaining sovereign risk. Our analysis focuses on 26 countries, including both developed and emerging economies, during a recent sample period. For both groups, while inflation and twin deficits are associated with higher...

The business cycles of advanced economies are synchronized. Standard macro models fail to explain that fact. This paper presents a simple model of a two-country, two-traded good, complete-financial-markets world in which country-specific productivity shocks generate business cycles that are...