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The main goal of the article is to investigate forecasting quality of two approaches to modelling main macroeconomic … accuracy not inferior to that of structural models. Additional advantage of their approach is that the forecasting procedure … can be mostly automated and the influence of subjective decisions made in the forecasting process can be significantly …
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The article compares forecast quality from two atheoretical models. Neither method assumed a priori causality and forecasts were generated without additional assumptions about regressors. Tendency survey data was used within the Bayesian averaging of classical estimates (BACE) framework and...
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mixed frequency datasets with ragged edges in a forecasting context. The resulting method, labeled MF-3PRF, is very simple … samle performance in Monte Carlo experiments, and empirical applications to GDP growth nowcasting and forecasting for the …
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in its ability to accurately capture clusters and preserve or enhance forecasting accuracy. For a high …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012315409
Cyclicality in the losses of bank loans is important for bank risk management. Because loans have a different risk profile than bonds, evidence of cyclicality in bond losses need not apply to loans. Based on unique data we show that the default rate and loss given default of bank loans share a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010515860