Im folgenden Beitrag wird die Dynamik von Marktprozessen in der deutschen Automobilindustrie mit Hilfe von Regelkreismodellen und Zeitreihenanalysen sichtbar gemacht und quantifiziert. Dargestellt werden der Markträumungs-, der Renditenormalisierungs-, der Übermachterosions-, der...

It seems to be a trade-off between shadow economy restriction and macroeconomic repercussions. This view is expressed by (Era Dabla-Norris and Andrew Feltenstein, 2003) and is in agreement with the author of the present paper although approached in a different way. Author believes that present...

Shadow economy is harmful to the economy for various reasons. On the other hand shadow economy restriction has some repercussions. In other words, there is perhaps a sort of trade-off between the restriction of shadow economy and the resulting macroeconomic repercussions. Hence, in the present...

This paper presents a method of calculating sharp bounds on the average treatment effect using linear programming under identifying assumptions commonly used in the literature. This new method provides a sensitivity analysis of the identifying assumptions and missing data in an application...

We study 30 vintages of FRB/US, the principal macro model used by the Federal Reserve Board staff for forecasting and policy analysis. To do this, we exploit archives of the model code, coefficients, baseline databases and stochastic shock sets stored after each FOMC meeting from the model's...

I study 46 vintages of FRB/US, the principal macro model used by Federal Reserve Board staff for forecasting and policy analysis, as measures of real-time model uncertainty. I also study the implications of model uncertainty for the robustness of commonly applied, simple monetary policy rules. I...

I study 46 vintages of FRB/US, the principal macro model used by Federal Reserve Board staff for forecasting and policy analysis, as measures of real-time model uncertainty. I also study the implications of model uncertainty for the robustness of commonly applied, simple monetary policy rules. I...

We explore Knightian model uncertainty as an explanation for the observed excess persistence and attenuation in estimated interest-rate reaction functions for the United States, relative to what optimal feedback rules would suggest. Two types of uncertainty are identified: (i) unstructured model...

In this paper, I present an empirical model of learning under ambiguity in the context of clinical trials. Patients are concern with learning the treatment effect of the experimental drug, but face the ambiguity of random group assignment. A two dimensional Bayesian model of learning is proposed...