This paper outlines an approach to assess uncertainty around a forecast baseline as well as the impact of alternative policy rules on macro variability. The approach allows for non-Gaussian shock distributions and non-linear underlying macroeconomic models. Consequently, the resulting...

Although several types of options on multiple assets are popular in today's financial markets, valuing multi-asset options is still a challenge in finance. The standard framework of multivariate normality is often inappropriate, since it ignores fat tails and other stylized facts of asset...

This article considers risk measures constructed under a discrete mixture-of-normal distribution on the innovations of a GARCH model with time-varying volatility. The authors use an approach based on a continuous empirical characteristic function to estimate the parameters of the model using...

This paper presents a method for Bayesian nonparametric analysis of the return distribution in a stochastic volatility model. The distribution of the logarithm of the squared return is flexibly modelled using an infinite mixture of Normal distributions. This allows efficient Markov chain Monte...

Sudden and uncertain events often cause cross-contagion of risk among various sectors of the macroeconomy. This paper introduces the stochastic volatility shock that follows a thick-tailed Student's t-distribution into a high-order approximate dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model...