Frei, Xenia; Langer, Sebastian; Lehmann, Robert; … - 2017 - This version: February 20, 2017
Party performance in state and federal elections is highly interdependent. Federal elections impact regional voting … layers of government. We apply vector autoregressions with predetermined variables to unique opinion poll data for the German … state of Berlin and the federal level in Germany. State voting intentions for the state and for the federal parliament are …