state of Berlin and the federal level in Germany. State voting intentions for the state and for the federal parliament are … the endogenous variables; the federal election trend is treated as predetermined. Our results suggest that shocks in … federal parliament voting intention impact state parliament voting intention, but - as a new finding - to the same extent also …

recently entered all state parliaments as well as the federal parliament in Germany. Although professed AfD voters faced a … German state elections. We define election information shocks as deviations of actual AfD vote shares from pre-election polls …

state parliaments as well as the federal parliament in the wake of steadily growing support among the electorate. We apply … an event-study approach which links election information shocks provided by official results of state-level elections in … conducted closely around state elections, we show that individual exposure to positive election information shocks significantly …