This paper revisits the performance of frequently used risk forecasting methods, such as the Value-at-Risk models. The aim is to analyze its performance, and mitigate its pitfalls by incorporating conditional variance estimates, as generated by a GARCH model. Notably, this paper tests several...

Performance evaluation of mutual funds using factor pricing models is usually distorted by the existence of a volatility anomaly and correlated residuals. By augmenting the Fama-French five-factor model with an active peer benchmark, we eliminate the measurement errors caused by these...

When decomposing differences in average economic outcome between two groups of individuals, it is common practice to base the analysis on logarithms if the dependent variable is nonnegative. This paper argues that this approach raises a number of undesired statistical and conceptual issues...

The purpose of this study is to assess model risk with respect to parameter estimation for a simple binary logistic regression model applied as a predictive model. The assessment is done by comparing the effectiveness of eleven different parameter estimation methods. The results from the...

The credit risk assessment process is necessary for maintaining financial stability, cost and time efficiency, model performance accuracy, comparability analysis and future business implications in the commercial banking sector. By accurately predicting credit risk, highly regulated banks can...

Backtesting methods are statistical tests designed to uncover excessive risk-taking from financial institutions. We show in this paper that these methods are subject to the presence of model risk produced by a wrong specification of the conditional VaR model, and derive its effect on the...

This short note discusses two alternative ways to model dynamics in happiness regressions. A explained, this may be important when standard fixed effects estimates have serial correlation in the residuals, but is also potentially useful when serial correlation is not a problem for providing new...

We characterize modern econometrics in terms of the emergence a widely accepted analytical framework. A major theme which dominated much of the debate through the century was whether and how econometric models can reflect theory-generated economic structures. In the period prior to the 2nd world...

To statistically infer the motives underlying pro-social behavior, econometric models of choice are required. Such inference is comparable across studies if the choice model yields estimates that are precise in-sample and robust out-of-sample. Analyzing two extensive dictator game data sets, I...