Lang, Jan Hannes; Forletta, Marco - 2020
This paper studies the impact of cyclical systemic risk on future bank profitability for a large representative panel … risk predict large drops in the average bank-level return on assets (ROA) with a lead time of 3-5 years. Based on quantile … local projections we further show that the negative impact of cyclical systemic risk on the left tail of the future bank …