We consider unobserved components time series models where the components are stochastically evolving over time and are subject to stochastic volatility. It enables the disentanglement of dynamic structures in both the mean and the variance of the observed time series. We develop a simulated...

We assess the bias and the efficiency of state-of-the-art dynamic panel data estimators by means of model-based Monte Carlo simulations. The underlying data-generating process consists of a standard theoretical growth model of income convergence based on capital accumulation. While we impose a...

This paper modifies several assumptions in the probabilistic approach to fiscal sustainability proposed by Celasun, Debrun, and Ostry (2007). First, we allow for structural breaks in the vector autoregression model for the macroeconomic variables. Second, in the Monte-Carlo simulations, we draw...