The term premium is estimated from an empirically coherent open economy VAR model of the UK economy where the model specifically accounts for the mixed nature of the data and cointegration between some variables. Using this framework the estimated negative term premia for 1980-2007 is decomposed...

This study presents a multivariate analysis of the stability of long-run relationships between variables that influence the conduct and transmission process of the German monetary policy. The initial VAR comprises the variables real money M3, real GNP, the inflation rate, a long-term and a...

The Nelson-Siegel model is widely used in practice for fitting the term structure of interest rates. Due to the ease in linearizing the model, a grid search or an OLS approach using a fixed shape parameter are popular estimation procedures. The estimated parameters, however, have been reported...

The objective of this paper is to provide a monthly estimation of term structure of spot interest rates and forward interest rates since the beginning of the European Monetary Union. In order to do this, we apply the Fama-Bliss metido, the approximating functions of two of the methods most...

We show that government spending does play a role in shaping the yield curve which has important consequences for the cost of private and government financing. We combine government spending shock identification strategies from the fiscal macro literature with recent advancements in no-arbitrage...

This paper develops a DSGE model which explains variation in the nominal and real term structure along with inflation surveys and four macro variables in the UK economy. The model is estimated based on a third-order approximation to allow for time-varying term premia. We find a fall in nominal...

This paper develops a DSGE model which explains variation in the nominal and real term structure along with inflation surveys and four macro variables in the UK economy. The model is estimated based on a third-order approximation to allow for time-varying term premia. We find a fall in nominal...

The Nelson-Siegel and the Svensson models are widely used in practice for fitting the term structure of interest rates. However, due to their highly non-linear nature and the potential danger of multicollinearity, numerical difficulties in estimating these models hamper their implementation. In...

We extend the class of dynamic factor yield curve models for the inclusion of macro-economic factors. We benefit from recent developments in the dynamic factor literature for extracting the common factors from a large panel of macroeconomic series and for estimating the parameters in the model....

In this discussion paper we introduce time-varying parameters in the dynamic Nelson–Siegel yield curve model for the simultaneous analysis and forecasting of interest rates of different maturities. The Nelson–Siegel model has been recently reformulated as a dynamic factor model with vector...