In this paper, we study the effectiveness of carry trade strategies during and after the financial crisis using a flexible approach to modeling currency returns. We decompose the currency returns into multiplicative sign and absolute return components, which exhibit much greater predictability...

We explore whether modelling parameter time variation improves the point, interval and density forecasts of nine major exchange rates vis-a-vis the US dollar over the period 1976-2015. We find that modelling parameter time variation is needed for an accurate calibration of forecast confidence...

This paper assesses time variation in monetary policy rules by applying a Time-Varying Parameter Generalised Methods of Moments (TVP-GMM) framework. Using monthly data until December 2022 for five inflation targeting countries (the UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Sweden) and five countries...

We extend the literature on economic forecasting by constructing a mixed-frequency time-varying parameter vector autoregression with stochastic volatility (MF-TVP-SVVAR). The latter is able to cope with structural changes and can handle indicators sampled at different frequencies. We conduct a...

This paper provides a detailed assessment of the real-time forecast accuracy of a wide range of vector autoregressive models (VAR) that allow for both structural change and indicators sampled at different frequencies. We extend the literature by evaluating a mixed-frequency time-varying...

Real exchange rates evolve independently of money supply shocks in accordance with long-run monetary neutrality. However, the prolonged disequilibrium errors of the Korean won - US dollar real exchange rates in the 1990s prior to the Asian financial crisis and the hike subsequent to the crisis...

Im Zentrum dieser Dissertation steht das Beschreiben und Erklären von Konjunkturdynamiken. Motiviert durch den außerordentlich starken wirtschaftlichen Einbruch in 2008/2009 betont die Arbeit dabei die Wichtigkeit der Nutzung von nichtlinearen Modellansätzen. Die Dissertation kann als Beitrag...