Most measures of vulnerability are a-theoretic and essentially static. In this paper we use a stochastic Ramsey model … to find a household's optimal welfare and we measure vulnerability as the shortfall from the welfare attained if the … household consumed permanently at the poverty line. The results indicate that vulnerability is very sensitive to the time …

We investigate the accuracy of ex ante assessments of vulnerability to income poverty using cross-sectional data and … vulnerability predictions is limited even when panel data are used. In part this low accuracy is due to low poverty incidence and …