Aim/purpose - The aim of this paper is to present two cases of crises in Greece and Italy and to evaluate the shadow exchange rates of hypothetical new currencies (re)introduced after Grexit and Italexit. Design/methodology/approach - Both shadow exchange rates are estimated using speculative...

This paper investigated the impact of exchange rate volatility on the automotive industry exports of Korea using a traditional long-run export demand model. In measuring the exchange rate volatility this study employed the General Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity [GARCH(1,1)] model...

We identify a global risk factor in the cross-section of implied volatility returns in currency markets. A zero-cost strategy that buys forward volatility agreements with downward sloping implied volatility curves and sells those with upward slopes - volatility carry strategy - generates...

I show that volatility risk of the dollar factor --- an equally weighted basket of developed U.S. dollar exchange rates --- carries a significant risk premium and that it is priced in the cross-section of currency volatility excess returns. The dollar factor volatility risk premium is negative...

This scholarly work is an effort to capture the effects of oil prices on the actual exchange rate between the dollar and rupee. This is done with reference to the U.S. dollar as oil prices are marked in USD (U.S. Dollar) in the international market, and India is among the top five importers of...

We analyze the international transmission of financial stress and its effects on economic activity. We construct country specific monthly financial stress indexes (FSI) using dynamic factor models from 1970 until 2012 for 20 countries. We show that there is a strong co-movement of the FSI during...

We identify a set of “rules of thumb” that characterise economic, financial and structural conditions preceding the onset of banking and currency crises in 36 advanced economies over 1970-2010. We use the Classification and Regression Tree methodology (CART) and its Random Forest (RF)...

During the past five years or so, most East Asian economies including the Philippines experienced a rising level of foreign exchange reserves and rapidly appreciating currencies both in nominal and real terms. One cause has been the resurgence of capital flows, which makes the issue of how to...

We use futures instead of forward rates to study the complete maturity spectrum of the forward premium puzzle from two days to six months. At short maturities the slope coefficient is positive, but these turn negative as the maturity increases to the monthly level. Futures data allow us to...

The aim of this paper is to develop a continuous time exchange rate model that allows for heterogeneity of the agents' beliefs, in order to explore non-linearities and possible chaotic behaviour. The theoretical model contains an intrinsic non-linearity that gives rise to a jerk differential...