This paper develops a Bayesian quantile regression model with time-varying parameters (TVPs) for forecasting inflation risks. The proposed parametric methodology bridges the empirically established benefits of TVP regressions for forecasting inflation with the ability of quantile regression to...

We evaluate the monetary determinants of inflation in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia by using the McCallum rule for money supply. The deviation of actual money growth from the rule is included in the estimation of Phillips curves for the four economies by Bayesian model...

We use a micro-founded macroeconometric modeling framework to investigate the design of monetary policy when the central bank faces uncertainty about the true structure of the economy. We apply Bayesian methods to estimate the parameters of the baseline specification using postwar U.S. data and...

We propose a novel framework where forward guidance (FG) is endogenously determined. Our model assumes that a monetary authority solves an optimal policy problem under commitment at the zero-lower bound. FG derives from two sources: 1. from commiting to keep interest rates low at the exit of the...

The paper contributes to understanding the economic dynamics at the zero lower bound and the exchange rate movements under different central bank intervention regimes. It provides a theoretical framework for modeling foreign exchange interventions at the ZLB within a dynamic general equilibrium...

We propose a novel framework where forward guidance (FG) is endogenously determined. Our model assumes that a monetary authority solves an optimal policy problem under commitment at the zero-lower bound. FG derives from two sources: 1. from commiting to keep interest rates low at the exit of the...

This paper conducts a structural analysis of inflation persistence in the United Kingdom between 1965-2009. I allow for the possibility of shifts in the U.K. economy by estimating open-economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models in which parameters of a Taylor-type monetary policy...