Social science has come under a firestorm of criticism following the discovery that many findings cannot be replicated. This paper argues that increasing the use of out-of-sample tests would improve the reliability of findings in all fields, including “complex” fields such as macroeconomics....

Using Gretl, I apply ARMA, Vector ARMA, VAR, state-space model with a Kalman filter, transfer-function and intervention models, unit root tests, cointegration test, volatility models (ARCH, GARCH, ARCH-M, GARCH-M, Taylor-Schwert GARCH, GJR, TARCH, NARCH, APARCH, EGARCH) to analyze quarterly time...

Economic theory is prone to hysteresis. Once an idea is adopted, it is difficult to change. In the 1970s, the economics profession abandoned the Keynesian Phillips curve and adopted Milton Friedman's natural rate of unemployment (NRU) hypothesis. The shift was facilitated by a series of lucky...

The study empirically examines the consequences of the relationship between fiscal and monetary policies in Nigeria. To do this, an Inter-temporal Budget Constrain (IBC) of the federal government was estimated using annual time series data for budget deficit, growth rate of monetary aggregates...

This was the first paper to study exclusively the effects of Ramadan on the United Arab Emirates Stock market. In doing so, the study aims to establish such impacts with the intention of advising the investors on whether it would be profitable to invest during the holy month of Ramadan or no.The...

The paper investigates Evsey's Domar's introduction of the rate of growth as a variable in economics in the 1940s and 1950s . Domar investigated the nature of what he called the "moving equilibrium" of ec onomic processes with infinite duration. Reactions to Domar' s approach at the time brought...

This paper analyses the hypothesis that the robust relationship between trust - as measured by the World Values Survey's question "In general, do you think that most people can be trusted, or that you can't be too careful in dealing with people?" - and economic growth, established by empirical...

The major perspective of this paper is to provide more evidence into the empirical determinants of capital structure adjustment in different macroeconomics states by focusing and discussing the relative importance of firm-specific and macroeconomic characteristics from an alternative scope in...

The idea that certain economic variables are roughly constant in the long-run is an old one. Kaldor described them as stylized facts, whereas Klein and Kosobud labelled them great ratios. While such ratios are widely adopted in theoretical models in economics as conditions for balanced growth,...

CGEMs are one of the most potentially powerful tools for simulating policies. However, a major restriction they face is them needing a huge number of parameters that are not always available, and even at times impossible to obtain. When CGEMs are applied to trade, Armington elasticities of...