The slow recovery following the 2008/2009 recession has led to renewed interest in the question whether deep recessions … lower real GDP permanently or whether we can expect a rebound to earlier trend levels. Using a recent quantile … to large recessions. The test has more power than conventional unit root tests. We find that positive and negative shocks …

of the trend-cycle decomposition, but the Hodrick-Prescott filter does not allow for jumps. We propose a modification of …The Hodrick-Prescott filter is a popular tool in macroeconomics for decomposing a time series into a smooth trend and a … business cycle component. The last few years have witnessed global events, such as the Global Financial Crisis, the COVID-19 …

In this paper, an Unobserved Components Model is employed to decompose German real GDP into the trend, cycle and … declined from 4.2 per cent in the sixties to 1.4 per cent at the end of the nineties of the last century. 2) The business cycle …

few years. -- potential output ; output gap ; production function ; business cycle ; filtering …

variables have become more powerful over time in driving national variables. -- Global shocks ; international business cycle …

variables have become more powerful over time in driving national variables. -- Global shocks ; international business cycle …

. -- real wages ; business cycle ; frequency domain ; time domain ; trend-cycle decomposition ; structural time series model …. As detrending methods we apply the deterministic trend model, the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition, the Hodrick … display a procyclical pattern and lag behind the business cycle. In the frequency domain the consumer real wage lags behind …

This paper characterizes the business cycle as a recurring Markov chain for a broad set of developed and developing …

. -- real wages ; business cycle ; frequency domain ; time domain ; Germany ; trend-cycle decomposition ; structural time series …. As detrending methods we apply the deterministic trend model, the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition, the Hodrick … display a procyclical pattern and lag behind the business cycle. In the frequency domain the consumer real wage lags behind …