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upward movements in realized market return volatility. Common wisdom connects these spikes with elevated uncertainty on … state variables and parameters. I show that infrequent, large and relatively transitory macroeconomic uncertainty shocks …, the onset of the second Gulf War, and the great financial crisis of 2008-2009. I compute macroeconomic uncertainty as the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013034741
This paper investigates whether central banks can attenuate excessive mispricing in stocks as suggested by the … component, a risk premium, and a mispricing component. We argue that mispricing can arise for two reasons: (i) from false … policy shock is ambiguous in both the short- and long-run, and depends on the nature of the mispricing. Subsequently, we …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011526074
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013187580
Equity basket correlation is an important risk factor. It characterizes the strength of linear dependence between assets and thus measures the degree of portfolio diversification. It can be estimated both under the physical measure from return series, and under the risk neutral measure from...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009665551
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011518800
This paper decomposes the risk premia of individual stocks into contributions from systematic and idiosyncratic risks. I introduce an affine jump-diffusion model, which accounts for both the factor structure of asset returns and that of the variance of idiosyncratic returns. The estimation is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011410917
In this paper we introduce a discrete time pricing model for a European call option when the log-return of the underlying stock (asset) is subject to discontinuous market regime type of shifts in its mean or volatility whose risk can be priced in the market. The paper shows how to estimate this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013130931
Under Black-Scholes (BS) assumptions, empirical volatility and risk neutral volatility are given by a single parameter, which captures all aspects of risk. Inverting the model to extract implied volatility from an option's market price gives the market's forecast of future empirical volatility....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012902982
indicate that volatility is not related to the evolution of jumps but the uncertainty about volatility is. More uncertainty … positive price jumps are less likely. We highlight the unique information content in volatility uncertainty and further show …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012899459
-sectional analysis is robust to the inclusion of uncertainty indexes, as well as macroeconomic and volatility measures …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012851891