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Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011962183
Many recent modelling advances in finance topics ranging from the pricing of volatility-based derivative products to asset management are predicated on the importance of jumps, or discontinuous movements in asset returns. In light of this, a number of recent papers have addressed volatility...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009771770
We study factor models augmented by observed covariates that have explanatory powers on the unknown factors. In financial factor models, the unknown factors can be reasonably well explained by a few observable proxies, such as the Fama-French factors. In diffusion index forecasts, identified...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014128414
Models based on factors such as size, value, or momentum are ubiquitous in asset pricing. Therefore, portfolio allocation and risk management require estimates of the volatility of these factors. While realized volatility has become a standard tool for liquid individual assets, this measure is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011860248
these two family forecasting-volatility models, comparing their performance (in terms of Value at Risk, VaR) under the …-data models at 5% and 1% VaR level. Specifically, independently from the data frequency, allowing for jumps in price (or providing … fat-tails) and leverage effects translates in more accurate VaR measure. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011674479
forecasting-volatility models, comparing their performance (in terms of Value at Risk, VaR) under the assumptions of jumping … prices and leverage effects for volatility. Findings suggest that GARJI model provides more accurate VaR measures for the S … accurate risk measures even if jump contribution is provided. More sophisticated models might address this issue, improving VaR …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011730304
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012033354
We introduce a model-free approach based on {\it excursions} of trading signals for analyzing the risk and return for a broad class of dynamic trading strategies, including pairs trading and other statistical arbitrage strategies. We propose a mathematical framework for the risk analysis of such...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014353654
In credit default prediction models, the need to deal with time-varying covariates often arises. For instance, in the context of corporate default prediction a typical approach is to estimate a hazard model by regressing the hazard rate on time-varying covariates like balance sheet or stock...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008939079
In this paper, we assess the Value at Risk (VaR) prediction accuracy and efficiency of six ARCH-type models, six … realized volatility and the augmented GARCH models with the FHS or the EVT quantile estimation methods produce superior VaR …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013126884