We consider the problem of testing for an omitted multiplicative long-term component in GARCH-type models. Under the alternative there is a two-component model with a short-term GARCH component that fluctuates around a smoothly time-varying long-term component which is driven by the dynamics of...

This paper adopts a novel approach to studying the evolution of interest rate term structure over the U.S. business cycles and to predicting recessions. Applying an effective algorithm, I classify the Treasury yield curve into distinct shapes and find the less frequent shapes intrinsically...

We survey the literature on stock return forecasting, highlighting the challenges faced by forecasters as well as strategies for improving return forecasts. We focus on U.S. equity premium forecastability and illustrate key issues via an empirical application based on updated data. Some studies...

We scrutinize the impact of dividend policy on stock price volatility by considering the seminal paper of Baskin (1989). In this context, we examine the relationship between volatility and three dividend policy indicators, dividend yield, dividend payout, and stock repurchases, for 1,221 firms...

This article documents how the changing composition of U.S. publicly traded firms has prompted a decline in the long-run mean of the aggregate dividend-price ratio, most notably since the 1970s. Adjusting the dividend-price ratio for such changes resolves several issues with respect to the...

The neo-classical finance theory suggests that capital markets can reasonably reflect the value of listed companies, but it ignores the link between the real economy and the capital market. The current study conducts an analysis of the relevance of the stock return volatility to the company's...

This article documents how the changing composition of U.S. publicly traded firms has prompted a decline in the long-run mean of the aggregate dividend-price ratio, most notably since the 1970s. Adjusting the dividend–price ratio for such changes resolves several issues with respect to the...

We examine stock prices and the number of stocks traded around ex-dividend dates of German stocks with tax-free dividend. Tax-free dividends are temporarily tax-exempt, as they reduce the initial purchasing price of a stock. With our analysis of this particular group of German stocks, we can...

Dividend payments are firm events on a recurring and predictable basis. High returns in the period between announcement-date and ex-dividend date are the main driver for the so-called dividend month premium, which are positive abnormal returns in months in which corporations are predicted to...

We examine the predictive ability of the aggregate earnings yield for market returns and earnings growth by estimating variance decompositions at multiple horizons. Based on weighted long-horizon regressions, we find that most of the variation in the earnings yield is due to return...