I assess the empirical evidence on comparative advantage. I argue that the Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek (HOV) relationship is not a refutable general-equilibrium proposition. Consequently, the empirical Heckscher-Ohlin literature has been suffering from tyranny of nonrefutability. The trade-governing...

We assess the robustness of previous findings on the determinants of terrorism. Using extreme bound analysis, the three most comprehensive terrorism datasets, and focusing on the three most commonly analyzed aspects of terrorist activity, i.e., location, victim, and perpetrator, we re-assess the...

We examine the role of geopolitical risk in the cross-sectional pricing of cryptocurrencies. We calculate cryptocurrency exposure to changes in the geopolitical risk index and document that coins with the lowest geopolitical beta outperform those with high geopolitical beta. Our findings suggest...

This paper investigates the impact of regional factors on Islamic and conventional stock returns in the member countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) from April 2011 to April 2021. This paper employs the quantile regression method to determine the effect of regional factors on GCC...

We study 30 vintages of FRB/US, the principal macro model used by the Federal Reserve Board staff for forecasting and policy analysis. To do this, we exploit archives of the model code, coefficients, baseline databases and stochastic shock sets stored after each FOMC meeting from the model's...

I study 46 vintages of FRB/US, the principal macro model used by Federal Reserve Board staff for forecasting and policy analysis, as measures of real-time model uncertainty. I also study the implications of model uncertainty for the robustness of commonly applied, simple monetary policy rules. I...

In this paper, I present an empirical model of learning under ambiguity in the context of clinical trials. Patients are concern with learning the treatment effect of the experimental drug, but face the ambiguity of random group assignment. A two dimensional Bayesian model of learning is proposed...