account impacts from oil price return and oil price volatility on forecast changes. The panel smooth transition regression … of Professional Forecasters. The results show that forecast changes are governed by overreaction. However, overreaction …

product forecasts. We evaluated the predictive content of data releases from point and density forecast perspectives, the …

Forecasts are useless whenever the forecast error variance fails to be smaller than the unconditional variance of the … forecast horizon h. Following Diebold and Mariano (DM, 1995) we propose a test based on the comparison of the mean …-squared error of the forecast and the sample variance. We show that the resulting test does not possess a limiting normal …

In this paper, we ask whether it is possible to forecast gross value-added (GVA) and its sectoral subcomponents at the … regional level. With an autoregressive distributed lag model we forecast total and sectoral GVA for one German state (Saxony … usage of different forecast pooling strategies and factor models. Our results show that we are able to increase forecast …

. It can be concluded from their analyses that although their methods are atheoretical they provide reasonable forecast …

The article compares forecast quality from two atheoretical models. Neither method assumed a priori causality and … performance was observed from Bayesian models adopting the frequentist approach. Forecast of the unemployment rate were generated … atheoretical, they provide reasonable forecast accuracy, no worse to that expected from structural models. A further advantage to …

empirical application, we estimate monthly German GDP in real-time, discuss the nowcast and forecast accuracy of the model and … the role of revisions. Furthermore, we assess the contribution of timely monthly data to the forecast performance …

empirical application, we estimate monthly German GDP in real-time, discuss the nowcast and forecast accuracy of the model and … the role of revisions. Furthermore, we assess the contribution of timely monthly data to the forecast performance …