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forecasting the term structure of interest rates. As expected, I find that using more flexible models leads to a better in …
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yield curve where the informational advantage exists and transmits the superior forecasting ability to all remaining yields … are widely adopted by financial and policy institutions for forecasting the term structure of interest rates. …
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-of-sample forecasting of using alternative estimators of the DFM under various sources of potential misspecification. In particular, we …, but it matters when the objective is out-of-sample forecasting. …
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A novel class of dimension reduction methods is combined with a stochastic multi-factor panel regression-based state-space model in order to model the dynamics of yield curves whilst incorporating regression factors. This is achieved via Probabilistic Principal Component Analysis (PPCA) in which...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011887659
forecasting. To do so, we develop a general estimation approach to incorporate volatility proxy information into dynamic factor …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011499535
this information improves density forecasting performance …
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forecasting. To do so, we develop a general estimation approach to incorporate volatility proxy information into dynamic factor …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210358
To simultaneously consider mixed-frequency time series, their joint dynamics, and possible structural changes, we introduce a time-varying parameter mixed-frequency VAR. To keep our approach from becoming too complex, we implement time variation parsimoniously: only the intercepts and a common...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011903709