This paper analyzes whether realized higher moments are able to predict out-of-sample sovereign bond returns using high-frequency data from the European bond market. We study bond return predictability over tranquil and crisis periods and across core and periphery markets at the index and...

The paper aims to analyse the drivers of changes in European equity tail risk. For this purpose, the paper uses a panel data model with fixed effects based on five explanatory variables including the VIX, the variance risk premium (VRP), the one-year lagged slope of the riskless term-structure,...