We study whether prices of traded options contain information about future extreme market events. Our option-implied conditional expectation of market loss due to tail events, or tail loss measure, predicts future market returns, magnitude, and probability of the market crashes, beyond and above...

Background: In the portfolio optimization area, most of the research is focused on insample portfolio optimization. One may ask a rational question of what the efficiency of the portfolio optimization strategy is and how to measure it. Objectives: The objective of the paper is to propose the...

Given the increasing interest in cryptocurrencies shown by investors and researchers, and the importance of the potential loss scenarios resulting from investment/trading activities, this research provides market operators with a dynamic overview on the short-term portfolio tail risk...