The Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU) is a variable of interest to policy makers as it provides … details Treasury's updated model. We consider specification choices that include: updating the measures of inflation and … inflation expectations; the introduction of a productivity gap term; the inclusion of a structural break to allow for the …

This paper presents the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) -based framework for analysing euro area inflation outlook …. Our NKPC specification, that relies on market- and survey-based inflation expectations, explains well euro area inflation … long-horizons. Overall, the NKPC is a useful tool for monitoring euro area inflation outlook. Thanks to its fast and light …

This paper examines the degree of persistence in UK inflation by applying long-memory methods to historical data that … evolution over time. On the whole, the evidence suggests that the degree of persistence of UK inflation has been relatively …-Bretton Woods changes in UK inflation are attributable to a fall in the volatility of permanent shocks. …

A statistically significant relationship between the unemployment gap and inflation can be found for a clear majority … slack on inflation can often be dominated by other shocks, including imported inflation. The current Secretariat Phillips … curve specification assumes inflation expectations are anchored at the central bank’s target, although some experimentation …

Inflation expectations are key to economic activity, and in the current economic climate of a heated labor market, they … therefore individual behavior, may not be sensitive to changes in inflation when it is low. This paper explores evidence of such … inflation expectations. Exploring inflation thresholds of 2, 3, and 4 percent, our findings are consistent with the inattention …

This paper examines the degree of persistence in UK inflation by applying long-memory methods to historical data that … evolution over time. On the whole, the evidence suggests that the degree of persistence of UK inflation has been relatively …-Bretton Woods changes in UK inflation are attributable to a fall in the volatility of permanent shocks. …

economic agents' inflation expectations. Real marginal costs are proxied by three different measures. The results suggest that … OECD inflation forecasts perform relatively well as a proxy for inflation expectations in the euro area, since under this … approach the European inflation process can be modeled using the forward-looking New Keynesian Phillips curve. However …

' PC (relating the level of the inflation rate, not the change in this rate, to the rate of unemployment); and the …

investigate the inflation expectations and uncertainties of firms. We document that, in the aggregate, firm inflation expectations … are very similar to the predictions of professional forecasters for national inflation statistics, despite a somewhat … inflation expectations bear little in common with the "prices in general" expectations reported by households. Next we show that …