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DSGE (Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium) models are the common workhorse of modern macroeconomic theory. Whereas story-telling and policy analysis were in the forefront of applications since its inception, the forecasting perspective of DSGE models is only recently topical. In this study,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011561187
Short-time work is a labor market policy that subsidizes working time reductions among firms in financial difficulty to prevent layoffs. Many OECD countries have used this policy in the Great Recession. This paper shows that the effects of short-time work are strongly time dependent and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011845664
In this paper, I show that the decline in household consumption during unemployment spells depends on both liquid and … illiquid asset positions. I also provide evidence that unemployment spells predict the withdrawal of illiquid assets …, particularly when households have few liquid assets. Motivated by these findings, I embed endogenous unemployment risk in a two …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014352249
Short-time work is a labor market policy that subsidizes working time reductions among firms in financial difficulty in order to prevent layoffs and stabilize employment. Many OECD countries have used this policy in the Great Recession, for example. This paper shows that the effects of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011718992
in their unemployment rate and not a decline in labour force participation rate. Policymakers should take account of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012157899
We investigate both theoretically and empirically how unemployment level and its growth affect future stock returns. We … find that both a higher unemployment rate and higher growth of unemployment positively predict future stock market returns … reinforce each other making stock returns exceptionally high in periods of high unemployment and high unemployment growth. Our …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014352081
An Estimated DSGE model for Denmark with Housing, Banking, and Financial Friktions The financial crisis has moved attention to the modeling of financial frictions and banks in DSGE models. The preceding housing boom put focus on the need to incorporate developments in the residential sector,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011754965
An Estimated DSGE model for Denmark with Housing, Banking, and Financial Friktions The financial crisis has moved attention to the modeling of financial frictions and banks in DSGE models. The preceding housing boom put focus on the need to incorporate developments in the residential sector,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011614062
We study fiscal policy in Denmark in the period 2004-2012 and compare the actual policy to counterfactual, rule-based alternatives. Given Denmark's fixed exchange rate towards the euro, it is the job of fiscal policymakers to stabilise fluctuations in output and inflation. However, we find that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010371427
Over the past 15 years there has been remarkable progress in the specification and estimation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Central banks in developed and emerging market economies have become increasingly interested in their usefulness for policy analysis and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010298566